Following up on yesterday's post about how the dictators of the Arab states have lost control of their "solution" to the Israeli "problem". In brief, the Persian (Iran) Shiites have produced an improved "solution" to the "problem" that that Arab kleptocracies use to justify their power. Hezbollah has proven to be more effective at getting rid of those pesky Jews than the Arab Unity solution of old.
Now, I am afraid, that yesterday's cease fire is only a lull before the storm. The Arab dictators are not going to sit by and allow Hezbollah to steal their customers without a fight. It won't be long before we see the new and improved "Arab Unity" (tm) product come out.
The new product will strive to show the Arab street that they, not Hezbollah, have the balls to do even more damage to Israel. If Hezbollah can lob 3000 missles into Israel, then just wait to see what the new product can do!
I'm deadly serious here. I know I am coming across as being smart ass about this. But I've been following the blogs of a lot of people who are in the Middle East, and it is starting to happen.
In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is doing everything they can do tie themselve to Hezbollah in the minds of the Egyptian public. They have been plastering posters all over congratulating Hezbollah on their brilliant victory over Israel.
In Syria today, dictator for life baby Assad proclaimed that he is going to take back the Golan Heights from Israel. He threathened Israel with "great harm" if they attack Syria. Since Syria claims that the Golan Heights is theirs, it won't take much to consider anything Israel does there as an attack on Syria.
In Iraq, where the Sunni's and Shites are in a de-facto civil war, the Iran backed Shites are emboldend by the victory of Hezbollah. Don't expect any compromises there. Just more killing.
The Sunni ruled Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia have forced their Muslim leaders to issue proclamations reminding their citizens not to look to Hezbollah as heros because they are Shites. Just to remind you, the state religion of Saudi Arabia, Wahhabbism, hates Shites. No doubt that the kings and princes who rule the Gulf States are shaking in their boots right now.
Thanks to Iran, the dictators of the Arab states find themselves in a jam. They don't want to go to war with Israel. They want things to go back to how they were. A never-ending conflict using the Palastinians as cannon-fodder for a morbib theater of mass-distraction. The Roman empire did the same thing by putting on gladiator games to the death to distract the Roman citizens while the empire was looted.
Large numbers of their citizens sense that Israel is on the ropes, ready to fall. They demand that their government finish them off by striking now as hard as they can. They demand that the dictators do what they always claimed they would do if given a chance.
So what are they going to do? Their options are getting pretty limited.
They could try to undo all the lies and propaganda they have produced. Too late for that! The did such as good job of telling everyone that Israel is the reason for all their problems that if they tried to say anything to the contrary now, they would appear to be part of the problem.
They could declare war on Israel and attack. Not a good idea. They tried this three times before and ended up having their asses handed to them on a platter each time.
They could do nothing. Then they would loose credibility in the eyes of their citizens, who will then flock to the opposition parties who are trying to do a "Me Too" with Hezbollah.
They could get medival with their own citizens and brutally remind them who has the weapons and power in their country. But that might envoke a coup, because the military might not back the dictators on this one.
My prediction? I think there will be a lot of saber ratteling in the next few weeks. Egypt's Mubarak will find himself with no option but to rip up the Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement that has been in place since 1976. Saudi Arabia will find themselves having to declare a state of war with Israel, but not attacking.
The states will then beg for time while they "prepare" for battle. You will see lots of moving around of troops, lots of smoke, but actually very little fire.
If they are really smart, and really evil, they will put their political opposition in the firing line. Perhaps they will allow these nuts to go ahead and attack Israel, just like Lebanon alloed Hezbollah to do. Then they will sit back and watch as Israel slaughters them. Let Israel do the dirty work for them.
So, it ain't over yet.
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